Predictions For 2016 – Recap
Every year I have written my predictions for the coming year. At the end of each year I go back through and see how I did. I rate on how accurate my predictions were based on news reports, trends and my own rating discretion. Basically it’s all for fun. The rating is basic, green for accurate, red for a miss.
You can see past year’s predictions and results here.
The original post for my 2016 predictions are here. The topics cover general trends, specific events and a few wild cards.
- IBM will take the cloud head on and stay in the rear – IBM is dragging behind in many areasI am calling this accurate. Amazon, Microsoft and Google are the leaders. and their cloud investments aren’t being realized. IBM does this, lags behind like a slow train but eventually they will gain speed, catch up, and plow over everyone. Only with the cloud adoption the world may not wait for that.
- Cloud Services Will Offer Full Data Center Configurations Al-A-Carte – I am going to call this accurate as well. With Amazon and Microsoft’s service maturing at an exponential rate a business can fully run an IT infrastructure without owning any hardware themselves. This offering will only grow and expand in the coming years.
- Anti-Encryption Laws Will Begin – Although there are no real laws on the books yet, I will call this accurate. The US Government politicians have begun releasing bills attempting to limit or flat out ban the use of encryption. The first of many attempts is the Burr and Feinstein Anti-Encryption Bill. In the new administration and changes across the EU we’ll see how far Big Brother attempts to get. At the end the people will prevail and encryption will be more widespread and standard in the near future.
- The Silicon Valley Exodus – This was a stretch of a prediction but a good one. I think Silicon Valley is doomed long term but things like that take time. With the explosion of cloud everything the need for centralizing in a tech area is less of a draw. There is enough talent everywhere and plenty of cheaper places to run a business and to live.
- Virtual Reality Will Flood Our Lives And Fizzle Away – I am going to split this. VR is still a ‘cool to have’ fad. The increase of graphical power of both the home video game consoles, mobile devices and the VR headsets themselves have made VR impressive. VR is everywhere, but if you have ever used it you’ll understand it’s more of a theme park attraction than something you can use everyday. Some do, but not the masses. VR will fizzle away like 3D TVs it just hasn’t happened yet.
- Apple Will Not Release A New Product In 2016 – I am going to call this accurate. Aside from the Apple Pencil, the predictable technology upgrades of a product line does not count as new. Apple is reaching the end of the Steve Jobs wave and unless they start figuring some things out Apple might be in a little trouble.
- Spotify Goes Live – Miss. I love Spotity, I use it every single day. Although Spotify has expanding to podcasts and video they are not going live… yet. Perhaps a prediction for 2017 will shed some more light on what I hope Spotify does.
- Facebook Buys GoPro – Another Miss. Facebook’s dive into video doesn’t have hardware in their plans.
- Google Kills The Password – Google is focused on killing the password as the core authentication method for services. I am full support of these password killing initiatives. Passwords are an archaic and vulnerable method for secure access. Using the devices around us in new, unique and secure ways will be the keys of the future. Google has testing password alternatives but I am calling this a miss as they are not mainstream as of yet.
- Internet of Things Has A Breach – This one is a big bullseye. I am not a fan of the Internet of Things not because of the technology but from the lack of oversight and laziness of builidng security into them. It was a matter of time until the IOT gaps were exploited and in October of this year it was realized. Vulnerable devices were compromised by a bot and used collectively to bring down large portions of the Internet in the US in a massive Denial of Service attack. Sadly, it will happen again.
There you go, my prediction results for 2016. Not bad, about 50/50.
Now I have to finish my 2017 predictions and get them out this weekend.
End of line.